Brian Zafron: I Eat Web 2.0 for Breakfast

Do you remember that feeling when you realized that Santa Claus was actually your overweight cousin or uncle? Or when you discovered that your father, your idol through infancy and childhood, was just an ordinary dude, capable of making mistakes?

I personally never believed in Santa Clause or in the perfection of my father (I was a cynical kid, I confess), but I honestly did believe Kevin Rose, the Founder of Digg, was a real-life superhero…until recently.

Rose has consistently maintained a popular ratio (percentage of articles that reach Digg’s front page) of at least 99%. Like a superhero, or at least a superhero of the Internet, he can pull a lever and initiate massive floods of traffic.

However, the recent Digg algorithm change, which is intended to create a more level playing field amongst Digg’s users, might be a mild form of kryptonite. Rose’s popular ratio has recently dipped to 98%, with four articles in the past three weeks failing to reach the front page. To give you some perspective, Rose has submitted a total of 347 articles since he birthed Digg in December 2004, and a whopping 341 of them hit FP.

So which articles have come up short? I’m glad you asked. I’ve dug them up (no pun intended) and compiled them for your curiosity and viewing pleasure. Check it:

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So what’s the deal? Why are Rose’s submissions underperforming?

Well, for one, the algorithm change seems to be making a discernible impact. It’s no longer as easy for a top Digger, like Rose, to reach the front page at will. Many armchair Digg experts and bloggers now point to the need for an increased diversity of diggs. In other words, the new algorithm puts even more weight on diggs that come from users who do not typically digg each other’s submissions. 10 diggs from strangers, for example, is more meaningful than 25 diggs from friends- now more than ever. This change displaces power from those users with tight-knit followings, often built up through track records of quality submissions.

But the algorithm encompasses more than vote diversity: the number of submissions, and the number of submissions that reach the FP, are also widely accepted as important factors. Both these numbers feed into a user’s popular ratio, which many consider to be the preeminent factor. This ratio is lowered for every submission that does not reach the front page, creating a negative snowball effect for a user who continues to submit articles that come up short. In this light, I ask the following question: is it a coincidence that Rose’s valley in FP success occurs simultaneously with a peak in the number of his submissions?

Since the algo change came into effect on January 22nd/23rd , he has submitted an uncharacteristically high 16 submissions. As JD Rucker, a popular Digger and blogger, pointed out in a recent Soshable column, “that’s more than [Rose] submitted in November and December, 2007, combined.”

Below are two graphs that illustrate Rose’s submission activity for both 2008 and 2007. Take note of the activity’s recent elevation.

Rose submitted a personal high of 22 submissions this January, closely followed by 21 subs in August of 2007 - when the algorithm change wasn’t even a bleep on anyone’s radar.

Of course, it’s possible that the only reason Rose isn’t making FP as consistently is a decline in the quality of his content, or perhaps in the gusto of his popularity. However, my bet is that the algorithm is simply leveling the playing field, exactly how Rose and his Digg homies intended.

But at the end of the day, even if Rose isn’t a superhero, he’s still pretty awesome. I mean…. he did invent Digg.

* By the way, we’re running a caption contest for the following Kevin Rose picture (courtesy of his Facebook profile). Please submit the best/funniest captions to me at brian.zafron@gmail.com, and we’ll let you know the cream of the crop next week.

[Your Caption Here]

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